Tracking Forecast Error Type, Frequency and Magnitude with the Forecast Error Package


  • Aspy P. Palia


The Online Forecast Error Package is used to identify and track the type, frequency and magnitude of sales forecast errors over the course of competition. Competing participant teams use this package to determine the extent of ending inventory, stockouts, and overtime production for each of their nine strategic business units at the end of each decision period. Later, the teams use the package to present consolidated sales forecast errors during the team presentation at the end of competition. Then, the teams present a sales forecast using a linear unrestricted single equation multiple regression model and check its accuracy. The use of the Forecast Error Package highlights the need for and significance of forecast accuracy in improving team performance.