Infectious Disease Simulation Model for Estimation of Spreading


  • Manabu Ichikawa
  • Hideki Tanuma
  • Hiroshi Deguchi


Using simulation models for understanding social phenomena recently became popular and is especially useful in some phenomena that cannot be simulated or tested in the real world, such as the phenomena of spreading an infection. To manage risks of spreading an infection in the real world, making a model of spreading infections in the city is very important and using it as a tool for understanding and analyzing the effects of infections is also important. This paper provides both a simulation model of a virtual city that is based on real data of Izu-Oshima Island and an infection-spreading model. Simulation results show what will happen in the real world if an infection occurs. Proposals for future use of the concepts and model are offered.