Simulation Performance and Forecast Accuracy -- Is That All?


  • John Washbush


This study evaluated the proposition that there is a correlation between forecasting accuracy and total enterprise simulation performance. Using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) over the periods of play as a measure of forecasting accuracy (predicting unit sales), three significant correlations were found for the five course sections studied. The study found, therefore, that there is a general correlation between forecasting accuracy over the periods of play and simulation standing. Additionally examined were simulation performance compared to a pre-play knowledge-based examination and an applied knowledge final course examination. Not surprisingly, no relationships were found for these latter evaluations. The paper contends that finding a correlation between forecasting accuracy and simulation performance is to be expected and of limited use in assessing what can and should be gained from simulation participation.