Predicting Business Game Performance from Perceptions of Manager Information and Actions

Abstract

A number of efforts have been made to predict business game performance in terms of such accepted measures as market share, stock market price, and return on investment using key indicators, multiple correlation, analysis of past influencing factors (such as advertising levels, pricing levels, and number of salesmen), Delphi group opinion studies in stages, etc. These efforts have met with mixed success depending upon the complexity of the economic environment, the experience and ability of the game participants, and the nature of the forecasting techniques involved. A novel approach to forecasting game performance which shows some promise as a forecasting tool involves taking surveys of group participants in the early periods of game play with a view to determining their attitudes toward the importance of selected aspects of management information and manager actions. The survey results are then used to predict some aspect of profit, financial, or market performance in future periods.