Heuristic and Systematic Evaluation of Policy: Experiential Exercise in Decision Making

Abstract

Recent extension of policy analysis has added a tool to quantitative approaches in decision making for policy formulation and review. This approach does not use probability theory as have most quantitative techniques in decision theory but rather is based on direct estimates of importance value. It becomes possible to assess not only discrete choices in decision but also hierarchies of interrelated goals, sub-goals, policies and combinations of alternative actions numerically. Potential benefits include more complete formulations of strategic alternatives and means for executing them plus more penetrating consideration of interrelationships between means and ends in policy level decision making. This paper includes a conceptual schema for strategic decision analysis in formulating policy and provides a vignette for comparative analysis of intuitive and systematic reasoning as an experiential exercise in decision making.