A Computer Simulation of Personnel Selection Decisions

Abstract

This paper describes a computer simulation of personnel selection decisions. The performance of an individual decision maker is compared to a Normative Decision Model (NDM) in a computerized simulation designed to reveal systematic patterns of bias (if they exist), the conditions under which these develop, and methods by which choices can be improved. The primary objective of the simulation is to generate a set of empirical generalizations regarding the functional relationship between patterns of choice behavior and decision parameters such as base rate, judgment accuracy, knowledge of results, and cost of errors. These generalizations and supporting protocol analysis may be grist for developing a process model of human choice behavior. A secondary objective is to explore ways in which choice behavior may be improved by exposing decision makers to graphical feedback regarding cost-benefit tradeoffs.