Probability Assessment and Performance in Business Game Simulations

Abstract

"Business games and simulations have been widely adopted in collegiate business schools. The level of performance by a group in a business simulation has been attributed to many factors. The primary purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis of a relationship between performance and the group’s ability to make good subjective probability assessments. A business game was used in three graduate level courses in an urban state university. At the end of the term, a performance rank was established for each group. Each group was also given a subjective probability questionnaire. Four measures of probability assessment ability were obtained. A rank correlation was obtained between performance scores and assessment ability for each class and each assessment measures. Statistical significance was found for a number of relationships "