Utilization of Manual Simulation Games to Develop Scenarios of Future Events--An Exploratory Study

Abstract

A future oriented manual simulation game, Futuribles, was used to generate sequences of events which were grouped into scenarios representing possible future environments. A group consensus technique was used to determine which events from a selected secondary list were most likely to influence the occurrence of events in a primary list. The results allowed construction of several plausible scenarios which could then be evaluated further for feasibility, consistency and likely impact on evaluating organizations. Expansion of technique to include additional primary and secondary events, cross impacts within primary and secondary events, and probability statements could improve the results achieved in terms of realism and comprehensiveness.